Search for: All records

Abstract Navigating uncertainty is a critical challenge in all fields of science, especially when translating knowledge into real-world policies or management decisions. However, the wide variance in concepts and definitions of uncertainty across scientific fields hinders effective communication. As a microcosm of diverse fields within Earth Science, NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) provides a useful crucible in which to identify cross-cutting concepts of uncertainty. The CMS convened the Uncertainty Working Group (UWG), a group of specialists across disciplines, to evaluate and synthesize efforts to characterize uncertainty in CMS projects. This paper represents efforts by the UWG to build a heuristic framework designed to evaluate data products and communicate uncertainty to both scientific and non-scientific end users. We consider four pillars of uncertainty: origins, severity, stochasticity versus incomplete knowledge, and spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Using a common vocabulary and a generalized workflow, the framework introduces a graphical heuristic accompanied by a narrative, exemplified through contrasting case studies. Envisioned as a versatile tool, this framework provides clarity in reporting uncertainty, guiding users and tempering expectations. Beyond CMS, it stands as a simple yet powerful means to communicate uncertainty across diverse scientific communities. 

Abstract Predicting tropical tree demography is a key challenge in understanding the future dynamics of tropical forests. Although demographic processes are known to be regulated by leaf trait diversity, only the effect of inter‐specific trait variation has been evaluated, and it remains unclear as to what degree the intra‐specific trait plasticity across light gradients (hereafter light plasticity) regulates tree demography, and how this will further shape long‐term community and ecosystem dynamics. By combining in situ trait measurements and forest census data with a terrestrial biosphere model, we evaluated the impact of observation‐constrained light plasticity on demography, forest structure, and biomass dynamics in a Panamanian tropical moist forest. Modeled leaf physiological traits vary across and within plant functional types (PFT), which represent the inter‐specific trait variation and the intra‐specific light plasticity, respectively. The simulation using three non‐plastic PFTs underestimated 20‐year average understory growth rates by 41%, leading to a biased forest size structure and leaf area profile, and a 44% underestimate in long‐term biomass. The simulation using three plastic PFTs generated accurate understory growth rates, resulting in a realistic forest structure and a smaller biomass underestimate of 15%. Expanding simulated trait diversity using 18 nonplastic PFTs similarly improved the prediction of demography and biomass. However, only the plasticity‐enabled model predicted realistic long‐term PFT composition and within‐canopy trait profiles. Our results highlight the distinct role of light plasticity in regulating forest dynamics that cannot be replaced by inter‐specific trait diversity. Accurately representing light plasticity is thus crucial for trait‐based prediction of tropical forest dynamics. 

Summary Allocation of leaf phosphorus (P) among different functional fractions represents a crucial adaptive strategy for optimizing P use. However, it remains challenging to monitor the variability in leaf P fractions and, ultimately, to understand P‐use strategies across diverse plant communities.We explored relationships between five leaf P fractions (orthophosphate P, P_i; lipid P, P_L; nucleic acid P, P_N; metabolite P, P_M; and residual P, P_R) and 11 leaf economic traits of 58 woody species from three biomes in China, including temperate, subtropical and tropical forests. Then, we developed trait‐based models and spectral models for leaf P fractions and compared their predictive abilities.We found that plants exhibiting conservative strategies increased the proportions of P_Nand P_M, but decreased the proportions of P_iand P_L, thus enhancing photosynthetic P‐use efficiency, especially under P limitation. Spectral models outperformed trait‐based models in predicting cross‐site leaf P fractions, regardless of concentrations (R² = 0.50–0.88 vs 0.34–0.74) or proportions (R² = 0.43–0.70 vs 0.06–0.45).These findings enhance our understanding of leaf P‐allocation strategies and highlight reflectance spectroscopy as a promising alternative for characterizing large‐scale leaf P fractions and plant P‐use strategies, which could ultimately improve the physiological representation of the plant P cycle in land surface models. 

Abstract Plant functional diversity is strongly connected to photosynthetic carbon assimilation in terrestrial ecosystems. However, many of the plant functional traits that regulate photosynthetic capacity, including foliar nitrogen concentration and leaf mass per area, vary significantly between and within plant functional types and vertically through forest canopies, resulting in considerable landscape‐scale heterogeneity in three dimensions. Hyperspectral imagery has been used extensively to quantify functional traits across a range of ecosystems but is generally limited to providing information for top of canopy leaves only. On the other hand, lidar data can be used to retrieve the vertical structure of forest canopies. Because these data are rarely collected at the same time, there are unanswered questions about the effect of forest structure on the three ‐dimensional spatial patterns of functional traits across ecosystems. In the United States, the National Ecological Observatory Network's Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP) provides an opportunity to address this structure‐function relationship by collecting lidar and hyperspectral data together across a variety of ecoregions. With a fusion of hyperspectral and lidar data from the NEON AOP and field‐collected foliar trait data, we assessed the impacts of forest structure on spatial patterns of N. In addition, we examine the influence of abiotic gradients and management regimes on top‐of‐canopy percent N and total canopy N (i.e., the total amount of N [g/m²] within a forest canopy) at a NEON site consisting of a mosaic of open longleaf pine and dense broadleaf deciduous forests. Our resulting maps suggest that, in contrast to top of canopy values, total canopy N variation is dampened across this landscape resulting in relatively homogeneous spatial patterns. At the same time, we found that leaf functional diversity and canopy structural diversity showed distinct dendritic patterns related to the spatial distribution of plant functional types.